Time running out for ceasefire deal
By Thomas Kean | Tuesday, 30 June 2015
Failure to reach agreement on a ceasefire within the next two months could result in the process being delayed for almost a year due to the elections and political transition, a senior negotiator warned yesterday.
President U Thein Sein (left) greets Nationwide Ceasefire Coordination Team leader Naing Han Tha (centre) and Padoh Kwe Htoo Win of the Karen National Union after they signed the nationwide ceasefire draft agreement at the Myanmar Peace Center in Yangon on March 31. Photo: EPAPresident U Thein Sein (left) greets Nationwide Ceasefire Coordination Team leader Naing Han Tha (centre) and Padoh Kwe Htoo Win of the Karen National Union after they signed the nationwide ceasefire draft agreement at the Myanmar Peace Center in Yangon on March 31. Photo: EPA
U Min Zaw Oo, director of ceasefire negotiation and implementation at the Myanmar Peace Center (MPC), said the announcement of the election date and opening of candidate registration in August would bring negotiations to a halt.
“The latest is mid-August. After mid-August everyone in the government is going to be tied up with the election,” he said.
“The next government comes to power in March … [and the] earliest we can do anything substantial will be June. That’s one year from this point to 2016 if we don’t have anything substantial [by August]. And anything can happen, because the ceasefire is still fragile.”
Speaking at the Peacebuilding in Asia Scholars Forum at Yangon University, he said the government was keen to revive stalled peace talks but is resistant to recently proposed changes to a draft ceasefire text and a new negotiating team formed by armed ethnic groups.
But in a clear sign that the government was not closing the door on further dialogue, he added, “We are now trying to work out how to resume the process of negotiation.”
Separately, U Hla Maung Shwe, senior advisor to the MPC, told The Myanmar Times that U Aung Min, the government’s chief negotiator, would meet informally in Chiang Mai with representatives of the armed ethnic groups in the first week of July. Discussions would include amendments to the ceasefire text proposed by the armed groups.
U Min Zaw Oo said the inclusiveness of the ceasefire remained an issue, with armed groups trying to bring six new parties into the agreement.
He said the new 15-member negotiating team, like its predecessor, the Nationwide Ceasefire Coordination Team, did not have the authority to confirm an agreement with the government, which left negotiators in a “catch-22” position where ethnic leaders could reject the results of peace talks.
Meanwhile, the government is resistant to considering the 12 changes to the text agreed in principle on March 31 that armed ethnic groups put forward following talks held in Law Khee Lar in early June.
Two of the changes refer to unresolved issues – international observers and who can sign the document – but the rest have “already been discussed”, he said.
But inclusiveness remains a major issue, and not only for the three NCCT members fighting the Tatmadaw in the Kokang region, who the government says cannot sign the agreement unless fighting stops.
“When it comes to inclusiveness I think it will be a very challenging task [to agree a ceasefire]. Even when the next government comes to power … we’re going to have a very hard time moving forward,” U Min Zaw Oo said.
U Aung Min warned last week that decisions “taken over the coming days” by the ethnic armed groups would determine whether Myanmar moved toward a “just and sustainable peace or whether we lose this unique opportunity, perhaps once and for all”.
“I fear that we are on the brink of losing the best chance in our lifetimes to end once and for all the armed violence that has plagued Myanmar since independence,” he wrote in Foreign Policy.
The government, armed forces and parliament wanted to finalise the draft nationwide ceasefire agreement “now” and move on to the next stage of political dialogue before the elections. “What remains is for the leadership of the ethnic armed groups to give their agreement,” U Aung Min said. He made no mention of their proposed changes to the ceasefire text.
However, he did say that the subsequent political dialogue would be “inclusive, involving all ethnic armed groups on an equal basis, regardless of size”. U Min Zaw Oo confirmed yesterday that this included the three armed groups fighting in Kokang.
Diplomats following the negotiations said the process had been hampered by divisions between and within the armed groups. This was echoed by U Aung Min who said he knew that “some” of the groups were uncertain about signing the pact but that he hoped the “bigger and more influential groups will now help to find a way forward from the current impasse”.
David Mathieson, Myanmar researcher at Human Rights Watch, said the possibility of the peace process going into “deep freeze” for the next eight months could provide a necessary period of reflection on issues to be raised in the next stage of the peace process.
“The first is a more open discussion in Myanmar society about the role of armed groups, primarily the Tatmadaw: what role the Tatmadaw plays in everyday lives. Also quite crucially is the role of ethnic armed groups, many of whom in certain opposition circles take on a level of reverence that is unwarranted. Some of these organisations are deeply corrupt, and have been deeply abusive for many years,” Mr Mathieson said.
Myanmar, he said, needed a more open social discussion of the impacts of the decades-long conflict on many people.
“It would be a very rewarding process during the next stage of the process for more people to talk about their lived experiences. Call that whatever you want – a truth and reconciliation process – but I like to think about it as an unfettered public discussion about the conflicts of the past 60 years,” he said.
