(Part 1)The virtual end of the 17 year old ceasefire between Kachin and Myanmar will turn out to be a dilemma for India, particularly in New Delhi’s quest to control the insurgency in the North East. The normalising of ties between India and Myanmar in recent times would, in all probability, require that New Delhi supports the junta’s action, or at least does not oppose it. In fact, certain observers have opined that the events that have unfolded in Bhamo and thereabouts could be a result of Indian pressure on Naypyidaw to act against the military wing of Kachin Independent Organisation (KIO), Kachin Independent Army (KIA). The KIA is reportedly aiding various Indian Insurgent Groups like ULFA and PLA, and recent reports have indicated that new camps belonging to both ULFA and PLA have come up in the area. Indeed, an Indian hand in the Kachin-Myanmar conflict could even be part of a larger Indian strategy to neutralise at least the resurgent anti-talk ULFA billeted in area controlled by the Kachins, even as New Delhi held its first meeting with pro-talk ULFA leaders on 10-11 February 2011. However, the matter is in the realm of speculation at this juncture, and the reason that has been provided for the termination of the ceasefire, which KIO had signed with the Tatmadaw in 1994, is a result of the junta threatening to use force if KIO does not comply with Naypyidaw’s plans to convert KIA into a Myanmar’s army controlled Border Guards unit.Indeed, the dilemma that India would be faced with is because the present situation poses both a danger and an opportunity. The danger stems from the fact that if India is seen to be supporting punitive action against the Kachins, it would offend the ethnic group (which is estranged in any event), leading them to become even more belligerent in their alliance with the Indian Insurgent Groups, which would then—as they have in the past—support them against the Myanmar army. The North East insurgents would, thereby, continue to have one last island left, and an active conduit to China, which as recent reports suggest have already begun to support groups such as ULFA and PLA.Also, the ongoing conflict may upset China which does not want conflict in northern Myanmar where more than two million mainland Chinese have settled, and who may now flee to China as a result of the conflict. China perceives the Chinese settlements in the area as their outposts in Myanmar and would not countenance a situation which might result in these having to be abandoned. Indeed, in 2009 when the Myanmarese army attacked the Kokangs, resulting in a deluge of refugees to Yunnan, China firmly told the junta to restore peace. The course of action that China might take could be the same as it took during the Kokang crisis. But, it may also lead it to intervene militarily—in however limited a way—were the junta to continue to act against the ethnic militias. Indeed, during the Kokang crisis there was considerable public opinion inside China to reconsider the country’s foreign policy and act more forcefully, even it meant, as one group asserted that “Chinese compatriots should take up arms against Myanmar and join a “Chinese-Kokang Alliance.” If such an incident were to come to pass, the consequence would be dire for India as the Indian Insurgent Groups, as aforesaid, may actually get closer to China, whose control over the area would become stronger. A response of the sort that is being analysed stems from two primary factors. First, Beijing feels that Naypyidaw is attempting to get closer to forces inimical to China like the United States and India, and may not be amenable to its diktats as in the past. Secondly, there are reports that the United States has promised help to the Kachins by way of considerable amount of money that is to be routed through the Kachin Baptist Church. The Kachins can then utilise the money to purchase weaponry from the Wa run black market and take on the Myanmarese army with greater strength. Article by - Jaideep Saikia (Senior Fellow, VIF)]文章作者：Jaideep Saikia (高级研究员，VIF)
