What some have called the world’s longest-running civil war may be over by the end of the month. An agreement on President U Thein Sein’s legacy-making ceasefire accord could be reached at a meeting with senior ethnic negotiators in Nay Pyi Taw as early as tomorrow, sources say.
Five armed group leaders and three members of the ethnic groups’ collective negotiating team, the Senior Delegation, will meet President U Thein Sein and Commander-in-Chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing in Nay Pyi Taw tomorrow.
Both sides hope to hammer out a compromise over the final obstacle – which armed groups will be signing the nationwide accord.
Negotiators said yesterday they are confident a deal can be reached.
“I think this meeting will lead to a final decision in favour of signing the nationwide ceasefire agreement,” said Senior Delegation member Padoh Saw Kwe Htoo Win, who is also a senior figure in the Karen National Union.
The government wants to sign the agreement with 16 ethnic armed groups that have already signed bilateral peace agreements. The ethnic groups, however, have insisted on the inclusion of six others that the government does not accept: three that are fighting in the Kokang region and three that have no armed wing.
Ethnic peace negotiators plan to insist on an all-inclusive agreement but the government has made clear on several occasions that it is not willing to accept the six additional groups.
If the president continues to reject the six groups, Padoh Saw Kwe Htoo Win said the ethnic group negotiators plan to push for an alternative: guarantees that offensives will cease and that all groups can participate in the political dialogue to follow within 90 days of the ceasefire signing.
“But we will try as much as we can to get an [all-inclusive agreement] because we don’t want to leave any groups behind,” he said.
U Aung Min, head of the government’s peace team, has said that the government does not plan to negotiate any further with the armed groups on the ceasefire, although it is unclear if this extends to the request for additional guarantees. He has also regularly warned that if the ceasefire is not signed under the current government then the process might have to begin anew under the next regime.
U Hla Maung Shwe, a senior adviser to the Myanmar Peace Center, told The Myanmar Times that ethnic groups’ push for inclusiveness will not be successful but if they are willing to compromise the draft could be signed within the month.
“I believe its 90 percent likely the nationwide ceasefire agreement will be signed in September,” he said, adding that for some ethnic leaders the September 9 meeting would be their first with either the president or the military chief.
The meeting represents a final push by both sides to square the agreement away before the election.
After more than 18 months of negotiations, the ceasefire text was finalised at a meeting in Yangon on August 6 and 7.
On August 11, the president urged ethnic groups to sign the nationwide ceasefire, sending a formal invitation to each group.
“We are ready to sign the nationwide ceasefire agreement,” the letter said, while also promising the Tatmadaw had no intention of launching any further military offensives.
New outbreaks of fighting have since followed the letter, however.
During a national radio broadcast on September 2, President U Thein Sein again urged ethnic armed groups to sign the agreement. He reaffirmed that the peace process will not end with the ceasefire.