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缅甸与克伦、南掸等10月15日上演停火秀 2015-10-05 按：更值得注意的是，昂民等负责停火秀的缅官将大部分民族组织拒绝签约归罪于中国：“那些拒绝签约的都是“缅北”组织”；签约组织大多“与泰国交界，而拒绝签约的大多与中国交界”；“云南或北京的某种机构在影响缅甸民族组织不要签约”；“缅军将果敢的缅甸民族民主同盟军视为外国叛乱分子”。另外，从行文中感觉中国对缅甸排斥克、德、若三族组织不满。
【缅甸时报10月5日《将于10月15日签署停火》】在经历近两年的谈判之后，不顾多个主要组织拒绝签约，7个民族武装组织和政府的代表于昨日确定10月15日签署“全国停火协议”。
首席谈判代表吴昂民向拒绝签约的武装组织发出和解信息，引用吴登盛总统的话说，不将拒绝签约者视为“反对和平”。
“全国停火协议是一本打开的书。对于那些目前不准备签约的组织大门仍然开着，他们做好了准备就可以重新加入这个进程。”
“政府没有以某些组织目前不愿签署全国停火协议为理由对他们发动进攻的理由。现有双边协议将会得到遵守，问题将得到和平解决。偶发冲突将按照全国停火协议派生的机制处理。”他说。
吴登盛2011年设定全国停火协议为其改革政府的关键目标，反复强调在下月大选之前签署协议的必要性。
但是10月15日仅仅只有兵员较少的7-8个组织来内比都，这不像能在11月8日大选前提升总统和执政党巩发党的公信力至如其所愿的水平。
尽管如此，吴昂民还是指出目标之一是“将全体接受的和平留给下届政府做基础。”政府的拥趸们则强调克服各组织之间的分歧达成协议的复杂性。
吴昂民说，政府只同最初开始和谈时的15个组织签约是个“困难的决定”。他还指出，那些决绝签约的都是“缅北”组织，指的是克钦独立组织和偶尔作为观察员参加和谈的佤联军。
缅甸和平中心停火谈判与实施主任U Min Zaw Oo说，预期掸邦复兴委员会/掸邦军将成为参加签字仪式的第八个组织。
他对缅甸时报说，这8个组织大多控制区在缅东南与泰国交界，而拒绝签约的大多与中国交界。
中国在公开场合迫切希望实现停火，但U Min Zaw Oo却说，看似“云南或北京的某种机构”在影响缅甸民族组织不要签约。他说，值得怀疑的理由之一是政府不许果敢汉族反抗者及其两个盟友参加签订协议。
政府顾问们说，缅军将果敢的缅甸民族民主同盟军视为外国叛乱分子。
在境外完成重组的缅甸民族民主同盟军今年2月试图光复2009年失陷的土地，果敢之战由此爆发。
U Min Zaw Oo，吴登盛总统和敏昂莱大将将分别代表政府和以缅军总司令身份签字。
当被问及协议是否可被视为真实的“全国”协议时，他强调说，停火将为启动政府和民族武装组织之间的政治协商铺平道路，只是有的组织是全权参加者，有的只是观察员。
由克钦独立组织担任主席的民族组织联盟UNFC声明说，这个停火协议既不具有决定性又不完整，只有允许相关各方都参加，才能实现真是的和平与有意义的协商。
声明说，与谈判始终相伴的是“政府军对少数民族此起彼伏和无休无止的进攻，这已经成为实现全国停火和国家和平的主要绊脚石。”
Ceasefire to be signed October 15
By Guy Dinmore | Monday, 05 October 2015
Seven armed ethnic groups and government negotiators agreed yesterday to set October 15 for signing the “nationwide ceasefire agreement” after nearly two years of negotiations, despite the refusal of several major factions to join the pact.
U Aung Min, chief government negotiator, sent a conciliatory message to the armed groups that had refused to sign, quoting President U Thein Sein as saying that those holding out would not be regarded as “against peace”.
“The NCA is an open book. The door is open for those organisations currently not ready to sign, to rejoin and participate in the process when they are ready,” U Aung Min told participants at the Myanmar Peace Center in Yangon.
“The government has no intention to use the unwillingness of some organisations to currently sign the NCA as a reason to launch offensives against them. Existing bilateral agreements will be adhered to, and issues will be resolved peacefully. Accidental conflicts that arise will be handled by mechanisms that emerge from the NCA,” he said.
U Thein Sein set a nationwide ceasefire agreement as a key goal of his reformist administration in 2011, and repeatedly stressed the need to sign a pact before next month’s elections.
But the presence in Nay Pyi Taw on October 15 of only seven or eight ethnic groups, with a small minority of combatants between them, is unlikely to give the president and the ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party the boost to their credibility they sought before the November 8 vote.
Nonetheless U Aung Min noted that one of the objectives was “to leave a peace process that is accepted by all as a foundation for the next government”. Aides to the government stressed the complexity of overcoming divisions among the various groups to reach a deal.
U Aung Min said it had been a “difficult decision” for the government to proceed with only a partial signing by the 15 groups that had originally started peace talks. He also noted that those staying out of the deal were grouped “in the north of the country”, referring to the Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO), the second-largest ethnic armed group after the United Wa State Army, which took part as occasional observers to the talks and is also refusing to sign.
U Min Zaw Oo, director of ceasefire negotiation and implementation at the Myanmar Peace Center, said it was expected that the Restoration Council of Shan State/Shan State Army would soon announce it would become the eighth group to join the signing ceremony.
Speaking to The Myanmar Times, he noted that most of the eight groups controlled territories bordering Thailand in the southeast, while those refusing to sign mostly bordered China.
Although China has pressed for a ceasefire deal in public, U Min Zaw Oo said it appeared that “some kinds of authorities, from Yunnan or Beijing” had influenced the Myanmar ethnic factions not to sign the pact. One of the suspected reasons, he said, was that the government had refused to allow the ethnic Chinese rebels in Kokang and two allied groups to join the agreement.
The Tatmadaw is said by government advisers to regard the Kokang-based Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) as a foreign insurgency.
Fierce fighting erupted in Kokang in February after the MNDAA, having regrouped outside Myanmar, tried to regain the control it lost over the border area in 2009.
President U Thein Sein will sign the ceasefire for the government, while Senior General Min Aung Hlaing will sign as commander in chief of the Tatmadaw, U Min Zaw Oo said.
Asked whether the pact could be regarded as a genuine “nationwide” agreement, he stressed that the ceasefire would pave the way for the opening of political dialogue between the government and armed ethnic groups, although some would be full participants and others observers.
The United Nationalities Federal Council, an alliance of ethnic groups chaired by the KIO, said the ceasefire pact was neither decisive nor complete. Genuine peace and meaningful dialogue could only be achieved by allowing all stakeholders to take part, it said in a statement.
It said that from start to end during negotiations, “the occurrence of widespread and ceaseless offensives against the ethnic nationalities by government forces has been the main stumbling block to achievement of nationwide ceasefire and peace in the country”.
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发表于 2015-10-5 18:47:47
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