昂佐：缅日关系将会是“东京爱情故事”，抑或是“大逃杀”？

在野孤鸿

翻译：何春晨先生

这个礼拜，昂山素季与日本外交大臣岸田文熊的会晤相片排满了政府的报纸首页头条。不过，照片中的微笑与握手之下，隐藏着一丝不和谐的历史因素。

自从2011至2012年的政治变革，日本迅速地恢复对缅甸的资助与投资，其中包括正在发展的迪拉瓦经济特区，占地2400公顷，位于仰光东南部的工业区。“日本财团”组织为缅甸的和平发展贡献了资金，也为缅甸的前任政府提供了救助。

在武装时期，昂山素季是反对接收日本的这些支援的，因为她认为此行为是在巩固当时的落后的政权，正如跟当时的政权关系发展密切的中国政府，日本政府丝毫不被昂山素季的观点影响。

不过，自从昂山素季掌权以来，日本也开始改变了策略。

昂山素季的国家民主联盟在选举时期取得全面胜利后，日本商人开始担忧。日本首相安倍晋三之前与昂山素季并无多少来往，不过大选之后三个礼拜，便邀请国家民主联盟的发言人吴年温在11月27号去东京会见外交大臣岸田文熊。会议上，吴年温希望这个世界经济第三大国能在缅甸有更多的经济和技术投资。

这个礼拜，岸田文熊在内比都会见了国务卿昂山素季。在超过一个钟头的会晤中，他们讨论了与援助、企业、发展相关的项目，以及跟缅甸少数民族武装组织之间的和平发展作出的努力。随后，日本外交大臣回见了总统Htin Kyaw，素季的密友，此次会晤持续了仅仅15分钟。昂山素季与日本的私交可有助于加强与东亚政权之间的联系。

在1985-86年间，她曾是京都大学的访问学者，在这里，她结识了一些日本朋友，但这些朋友都不在商界。缅甸开始开放之后，2013年4月份，她回到了日本，遇到了安倍。

在二十世纪40年代初期，昂山素季的先父，将军昂山，缅甸的独立英雄，接受了日本军队的军事训练，甚至还使用了日本名字“OMODA MONJI”。他和他的同胞们，传说中的“三十勇士”，接受了日本军方的武器和财政支持，来反抗当时统治缅甸的英国。在日本的支持下，昂山成为了战争大臣，但是随后，在二战期间，当日本加入同盟国集团之后，他决定反抗残酷的日本政体。

在二十世纪60年代，将军奈温，“三十勇士”成员之一，开始寻求与东京建立亲密关系。在他统治的26年中，奈温政府接受了来自日本的援助和贷款，以及之前的战争赔款。与此同时，日本也将缅甸视为具有资深经济潜力的国家。

但是在二十世纪80年代出现动乱时，昂山素季被软禁了。在90年代，昂山素季对压制缅甸政体的日本经济协议产生了质疑。在1995年，素季被解禁之后，日本报纸每日新闻社出版了她的“来自缅甸的信”。在这些信中，她毫不掩饰其反对日本在缅政策的观点。

有趣的是，日本是第一个被告知“素季被释放”这一信息的国家，随后，日本政府同意恢复海外发展援助（ODA）计划。从某种意义上来看，素季的释放像是一项援助协议的谈判筹码。但是，素季在公开场合表示，建议东京暂缓其一揽子援助计划，同时她告诉已解散的远东经济评论报的记者说：“如果这是对我被释放的一种奖赏，那么我仅仅是其中一名政治犯，还有其他人仍在监狱里。改变一个人的处境，并不足以彰显恢复援助的价值。”

在传统援助之外，日本还提供一笔赠款，支持在臭名昭著的金三角地区，在KOKANG地区杜绝罂粟花的种植，改种其它替代物。他们引进了荞麦的种植，此农作物可用于日本荞麦面产品的生产。

素季感到非常沮丧。1996年4月，在被释放不到一年时，她在每日新闻社报上写到：“来缅甸掘金的商人，就像路过花期正旺的果园的路人，他们残忍地采摘花朵以欣赏其脆弱的美丽，无视留下来的光秃秃枝桠的丑陋，不考虑他们的行为已危及到将来的丰收以及给果树的真正主人带来的不公平待遇。在这些掠夺者中，日本大公司首当其冲。”

1996年6月，素季通过仰光的日本大使馆向当时的首相桥本龙太郎发了一封函，请求东京方面，依照海外发展援助协议中的条款，运用其经济力量推动缅甸的民主化进程。她未得到回应。

与此同时，在日本，出现了由商人和亲缅官方机构书写的抨击素季的文章。很显然，那些在日本的有权势的人认为，素季是在缅从商和实施援助的障碍。

但是现在，素季执掌了政权，缅甸在过去五年里发生了戏剧性的政治变革。

“我们将和缅甸政府合作，创造出对缅甸商人和日本商人都有利的环境。”日本外长如是说，同时还特别指出，日本将大力为缅甸创造就业岗位，繁荣缅甸农业发展，推动缅甸教育、经济、健康卫生和基础设施领域的建设。

“日本将竭尽全力帮助缅甸加快民族复兴进程，”文熊补充到，表达了帮助缅甸重新纳入国际体系的愿望。作为外交部长，素季对“日本人民对缅甸的支持和热心”表示感谢。通过文熊，安倍邀请素季访问日本并向其发送了一封私人信函。

但是日本并不是唯一一个在内比都（Naypyidaw）处追求新权力的国家。在全国民主联盟（NLD）组成新政府后不久，中国外交部长王毅应素季的邀请对缅甸进行了意料之外的访问。并且在去年，选举前几个月，素季去了中国，习近平主席接见了她——有人称此为重大的外交突破，因为是北京方面邀请了当时的反对派领袖。毫无疑问，作为缅甸最大投资商之一的中国，想在素季身上下赌注。但问题是：她会保护中国在缅甸的商业和战略利益吗？通过王，习在上个月向素季发出了另一个访问邀请。

政府部门还未公布素季的海外访问日程，但是（大家都在关注）哪一个国家将是她的第一个访问国，中国还是日本？这个决定可能对素季与日本的坎坷关系发出重要信号。

在野孤鸿在此特别鸣谢何春晨先生翻译此文！

英文原版：
This week, state-run newspapers splashed Japanese ForeignMinister Fumio Kishida’s photo with Foreign Minister Aung San SuuKyi all over their front pages. But beneath the smiles andhandshakes, there is a history of discord.

After the political opening in 2011 and 2012, Japan movedquickly to resume aid and investment to Burma—including developmentof the Thilawa Special Economic Zone (SEZ), a 2,400-hectareindustrial zone in southeast Rangoon Division. Japan’s NipponFoundation also provided funds for Burma’s peace-building processand general aid to the previous government.

Suu Kyi was opposed to this aid and investment from Japanduring the junta’s reign because she saw it as bolstering therepressive regime that ruled over the country with an ironfist.

But like the Chinese government, which developed even closerrelations with the regime, Tokyo was not deterred by herstance.

Japan, however, is recognizing that it might have to changeits ways to deal with the new reality of Suu Kyi in power.

After Suu Kyi’s party, the National League for Democracy(NLD), won a landslide victory in the national elections, Japanesebusinesses were worried. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had notdeveloped close ties with Suu Kyi. But less than three weeks afterthe election, Abe invited a high-level NLD official to Tokyo.

On Nov. 27, Nyan Win, central executive committee member ofthe NLD, met with Foreign Minister Kishida in Tokyo. Nyan Win askedfor more investment and technological assistance from the world’sNo. 3 economy.

This week in Naypyidaw, Kishida first met with Suu Kyi, whoalso serves as Burma’s state counselor. They spent more than anhour discussing issues related to aid, business, developmentprojects and peace-building efforts with Burma’s ethnic armedorganizations. Afterwards, the Japanese foreign minister met withPresident Htin Kyaw, Suu Kyi’s confidant. That meeting lasted only15 minutes.

Given Suu Kyi’s personal ties to Japan, a relationship withthe East Asian power could blossom.

She was a visiting scholar at Kyoto University in 1985-86,where she made some Japanese friends, but none of them were fromthe business community. And when she returned to Japan in April2013 after Burma began opening up, she met Abe.

In the early 1940s, Suu Kyi’s late father, Gen. Aung San,Burma’s independence hero, received military training from theJapanese Army and even adopted a Japanese name, Omoda Monji.

He and his compatriots, the legendary “Thirty Comrades,”received arms and financial support from the Japanese Army to fightthe British, who were then ruling Burma. Under Japanese occupation,Aung San became war minister, but he subsequently decided to revoltagainst the draconian Japanese regime after joining forces with theAllies during World War II.

In the 1960s, Gen. Ne Win, one of the “Thirty Comrades,”sought to cultivate closer relations with Tokyo. Throughout his26-year rule, the Ne Win regime received aid and loans from Japan,as well as post-war reparations. At the time, the Japanese viewedBurma as a country with high economic potential.

But then came the tumultuous late 1980s, and Suu Kyi was putunder house arrest. While there in the 1990s, Suu Kyi was criticalof Japan’s economic engagement with the repressive Burmese regime.After she was freed from house arrest in 1995, the Japanesenewspaper Mainichi Shimbun published Suu Kyi’s “Letters fromBurma.” In her letters, she did not hide her opposition to Japan’sBurma policy.

Interestingly, Japan was the first country to be informed ofher release, and subsequently the Japanese government agreed toresume Overseas Development Assistance (ODA). It appears that SuuKyi’s release was somehow a bargaining chip in the aid deal.Nonetheless, publicly, she advised Tokyo to hold off on its aidpackage.

“If it is a reward for my release, I’m just one politicalprisoner, there are others still in jail,” she told a correspondentfrom the now-defunct Far Eastern Economic Review at the time.“Changing the conditions of one person is not enough to merit therenewal of aid.”

In addition to the traditional aid package, the Japaneseprovided a grant in the notorious Golden Triangle, where theywanted to promote eradication of opium poppy cultivation in theKokang region through crop substitution. They introduced thecultivation of buckwheat, which is used in Japanese soba noodleproduction.

Suu Kyi was frustrated. In April 1996, less than one yearafter her release, she wrote in the Mainichi Shimbun: “To observebusinessmen who come to Burma with the intention of enrichingthemselves is somewhat like watching passers-by in an orchardbrutally stripping off blossoms to appreciate their fragile beauty,blind to the ugliness of the despoiled branches, oblivious to thefact that by their action they are imperiling future fruitfulnessand committing an injustice against the rightful owners of thetrees. Among these despoilers are big Japanese companies.”

In June 1996, Suu Kyi sent a letter to then Prime MinisterRyutaro Hashimoto via the Japanese Embassy in Rangoon, asking Tokyoto exercise its economic power to push for democratization in Burmaas stipulated in the ODA guidelines. She received no reply.

Meanwhile, in Japan, there appeared a flurry of SuuKyi-bashing articles written by businessmen and governmentofficials close to the Burmese regime. It was obvious that somepowerful people in Japan felt Suu Kyi was an obstacle to doingbusiness and carrying out aid in Burma.

But now Suu Kyi is in power. Burma has seen dramatic politicalchanges over the past five years.

“We’ll cooperate with the Myanmar government to create aclimate that will benefit both the people of Myanmar and Japanesebusinesses,” the visiting Japanese foreign minister said,specifically pointing out his country’s ambition to spur jobcreation and bolster the development of Burma’s agricultural,education, finance, health care and infrastructure sectors.

“Japan will do as much as it can to help Myanmar in itsprocess of national reconciliation,” Kishida added, stating adesire to help the former pariah state re-engageinternationally.

In her role as foreign minister, Suu Kyi expressed herappreciation for the “support and kindness expressed by the peopleof Japan” for Burma. Through Kishida, Abe invited her to Japan andsent her a personal letter.

But Japan is not alone in courting the new powers that be inNaypyidaw.

Shortly after the NLD formed a government, it was ChineseForeign Minister Wang Yi who paid a surprise visit to Burma at theinvitation of Suu Kyi.

And last year, a few months before the election, Suu Kyi wasin China, where President Xi Jinping received her—some called it amassive diplomatic breakthrough because it was Beijing that hadinvited the then-opposition leader. No doubt China, one of the topinvestors in Burma, wanted to bet on Suu Kyi. The question for themis: Will she protect China’s business and strategic interests inBurma? Through Wang, Xi extended another invitation to Suu Kyi lastmonth.

The ministry has not yet announced Suu Kyi’s itinerary foroverseas visits, but look out to see which of the two countries shetravels to first, China or Japan. That decision could be a majorsign of things to come in Suu Kyi’s bumpy relationship withJapan.